Trend Assessment

E_t and E₀ differ from E_t* and E₀* in Equation level assessment in that removals are not entered as absolute values.

The Source or Sink Category Trend is the change in the source or sink category emissions or removals over time, computed by subtracting the base year (year 0) estimate for source or sink category x from the current year (year t) estimate and dividing by the current year estimate.

The Total Trend is the change in the total inventory emissions (or removals) over time, computed by subtracting the base year (year 0) estimate for the total inventory from the current year (year t) estimate and dividing by the current year estimate.

In more simple words, these are categories that are probably not the biggest or the smallest, but have exhibited dramatic growth or decline behavior in comparison to the trend in the Party’s total emissions.

The Tier 1 trend assessment evaluates how the difference between a category’s trend and the overall inventory’s trend affects the overall trend. This assessment is prepared by multiplying the absolute value of the difference between the category trend and the total inventory trend by the source category level assessment. Trend assessments are based upon the following equation: Source or Sink Category Trend Assessment = (Source or Sink Category Level Assessment) • │(Source or Sink Category Trend – Total Trend) │ T_x,t* = E_x,t* / Et • │ [( E_x,t – E_X,0 ) / E_x,t ] – [ ( E_t – E₀ ) / E_t] │ Where: T_x,t* = trend assessment, which is the contribution of the source or sink category trend to the overall inventory trend. The Trend Assessment is always recorded as an absolute value, i.e., a negative value is always recorded as the equivalent positive value. The asterisk () indicates that, LULUCF sources and sinks can be evaluated using this equation. E_x,t = │E_x,t│ absolute value of emission or removal estimate of source or sink category x in year t E_x,t and E_x,0 = real values of estimates of source or sink category x in years t and 0, respectively E_t and E₀ = Σ E_x,t and Σ E_x,0 total inventory estimates in years t and 0, respectively.
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E_t and E₀ differ from E_t* and E₀* in Equation level assessment in that removals are not entered as absolute values. The Source or Sink Category Trend is the change in the source or sink category emissions or removals over time, computed by subtracting the base year (year 0) estimate for source or sink category x from the current year (year t) estimate and dividing by the current year estimate. The Total Trend is the change in the total inventory emissions (or removals) over time, computed by subtracting the base year (year 0) estimate for the total inventory from the current year (year t) estimate and dividing by the current year estimate. In more simple words, these are categories that are probably not the biggest or the smallest, but have exhibited dramatic growth or decline behavior in comparison to the trend in the Party’s total emissions.
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